Investigating the Impact of Different Climate Change Scenarios on Groundwater Fluctuations in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions (Case Study: Kerman Plain)


1 university of tehran

2 Professor, Rehabilitation group of arid and mountainous areas, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran.


Use the output of atmospheric general circulation models to understand the weather conditions and to prevent the spread and consequences of climate change on groundwater resources in all ecosystems, especially in arid and semi-arid regions is necessary. The present study was conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on groundwater level fluctuations in Kerman plain, Iran. In order to investigate the impact of climate change in future periods, the CanESM2 climate model and SDSM4.2 software were used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Then, GMS10.0.5 was used for quantitative modeling of groundwater in Kerman plain. The mathematical model prepared for the steady state in 2002-2003 was calibrated over 2002-2012 in 120 steps for the unsteady state condition and the 2012-2015 period for the calibration. The results of climate scenarios in the upcoming period (2006-2030) showed that temperature will increase by 1.12, 1.23 and 1.37 degrees Celsius while rainfall will increase by 14.69, 19 and 26.29 percent in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results of climate scenarios showed that in spite of increased rainfall and the assumption of constant utilization of groundwater, the average groundwater level in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the upcoming period would be lower than the water level compared with the base year (2002-2003), by 7.19 and 7.26, and 7.33 meter in the whole region, respectively. It is recommended that measures to deal with global warming resulting from climate change and over-exploitation of groundwater resources by reforming cropping patterns, irrigation new methods.


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