Trend Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Iran Using Univariate and Multivariate Idices

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 MSc Graduated of Watershed Management, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Agriculture, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Range and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran

Abstract

The drought phenomenon contains important characteristics, including duration, severity, peak and frequency. In this study, two indices of drought assessment consist of univariate index (Standardized Precipitation Index: SPI) and multivariate copula-based index (JDI: Joint Deficit Index) are compared. In this regard, the drought characteristics, including the severity, duration, and drought frequency have been studied in 39 synoptic stations of Iran during the 1965–2014. The results showed that the longest duration and maximum severity of each station belongs to the JDI. Also, the frequency of drought in different classes shows the JDI estimates the drought frequency with high accurately, but the SPI‐12 provided an unexpected estimation is some stations. In addition, the results of the Mann-Kendall test for the drought characteristics showed that the drought trend with JDI is decreasing while SPI-12 does not show a significant trend in the most stations. Finally, the results showed that JDI provides a complete drought assessment for decision makers and water resource managers.

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Main Subjects


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