تحلیل روند تغییرات سالانه و فصلی دما، بارش و خشکسالی‌های استان همدان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا

2 آبیاری و زهکشی گروه مهندسی آبیاری دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا

3 آبیاری و زهکشی گروه مهندسی آبیاری دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

در این مطالعه تحلیل روند آماری عوامل اقلیمی بارش، دما و خشکسالی در دو مقیاس فصلی و سالانه در 15 ایستگاه از منطقه همدان، انجام گرفت. برای این منظور ابتدا خشکسالی در سطح هر ایستگاه از شاخص بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) محاسبه و سپس تغییرپذیری عوامل مورد مطالعه با استفاده آزمون ناپارامتریک من­کندال صورت گرفت. نتایج تحلیل روند مقدار باران سالانه نشان داد در 60 درصد ایستگاه­ها، روند بارش کاهشی بود که این کاهش بیشتر متوجه فصول بهار، زمستان و تابستان است. بررسی تغییرات دمایی نشان داد که روند دمای سالانه 50 درصد از ایستگاه­ها افزایش معنی­داری داشته است. در مقیاس فصلی، دو فصل تابستان و پاییز، افزایش دما و دو فصل بهار و زمستان کاهش دما را نشان دادند. روند افزایش خشکسالی­ها نیز همانند روند تغییرات بارش بود، به­طوری­که در 67 درصد ایستگاه­ها خشکسالی سالانه افزایش یافته و این افزایش در 33 درصد ایستگاه­ها در سطح 05/0 معنی­دار بود. بیشترین تعداد روندهای معنی­دار در میانگین عوامل اقلیمی مورد مطالعه در فصل تابستان مشاهده شد. همچنین روند تغییرات در دو ایستگاه عمرآباد و قهاوند برای کلیه عوامل مورد مطالعه در هر دو مقیاس زمانی معنی­دار بود. این دو ایستگاه دریافت­کننده مقادیر حدی بیشینه و کمینه بارش می­باشند که معنی­دار بودن تمامی عوامل اقلیمی مورد مطالعه قابل توجیه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation and drought in Hamedan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Zareabyaneh 1
  • Maryam Bayatvarkeshi 2
  • vahid yazdani 3
چکیده [English]

In this study, climatic factors statistical trend analysis of rainfall, temperature and drought on seasonal and yearly scales at 15 stations of the Hamadan region, was performed. For this purpose, initially at the level of drought each station standardized precipitation index (SPI) and then calculate the variation factors studied using Kendall nonparametric test was. Average annual rainfall trend analysis showed that 60 percent of stations, the process of reducing precipitation was noticed that the further reduction of spring, winter and summer. Seasonal scale, both in summer and autumn, temperature increase and decrease in spring and winter temperature showed. Trend of increasing droughts similar trend was raining, so that 67 percent of the annual drought of stations increased to 33 percent increase on the station level 0.05 significant. The most significant trends in mean climatic factors studied were observed in summer. The trend in the two stations Ghahavand and Amr Abad for all factors studied in both time scales was significant. These two station receiving values of the, maximum and minimum of rainfall are that significant all climatic factors studied is justifiable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • mann-kendal
  • tempersture trend
  • rain trend
  • drought trend
  • Hamedan
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