Evaluation of Elimate Indices and the General Trend of Climate Changes (Case study: Shiraz synoptic station)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, College of Agriculture, University of Torbat Heydarieh, Torbat Heydarieh

2 Assistant professor in Department of Rang and Watershed Management. Faculty of Agricultural Science. Fasa University, Iran.

Abstract

Continual drought affected on the earth surface and has changed appearance of it. Therefore accurate assessment of changes in the climate parameters and effect of them on the environmental factors and water resources is very important and necessary. In this paper, precipitation and temperature changes in Shiraz synoptic station since 1983 to 2013 were evaluated. In this study various drought indexes such as SPI, RAI, PNPI, DI and SIAP evaluated in the annual scale and based of them, the different rainfall regimes in Shiraz were categorized. According to the monitoring of drought and wet years condition, maximum similarity is between SIAP index and DI, RAI indexes, SPI and RAI indexes have minimum similarity. According to the Results of this paper in the recent decade changes trend of annual precipitation, maximum intensity of rainfall and minimum absolute of temperature have been decreased. So that annual precipitation decreased about 50 millimeters in the last decade, maximum intensity of daily precipitation decreased 20 percent and average of minimum annual temperature decreased 2 degrees centigrade. Also the trend changes of maximum absolute temperature and number of frost days have been increased. According to results difference between maximum and minimum annual temperature have been increased, average of maximum absolute temperature in the ten years periods have been increased about 0.6 degrees centigrade.

Keywords


 
عسکری، ا. و ک. نوحی. 1385. مطالعه خشکسالی و دوره بازگشت خشکسالی­ها و ترسالی­ها در منطقه قم. خشکسالی کشاورزی، ش 15، صفحه 47.
قربانی، خ.، ع. خلیلی، س. علوی پناه و غ. نخعی زاده. 1389. مطالعه تطبیقی نمایه­های هواشناسی خشکسالی SIAP و SPI به روش داده کاوی (مطالعه موردی کرمانشاه). نشریه آب و خاک، جلد 24، شماره 3.
حسن­لی، ع. 1390. تغییرات اقلیمی و پیامدهای آن بر منابع آب و محیط زیست. انتشارات جهاد دانشگاهی مشهد.
مرادی، ح. ر.، م. رجبی. و م. فرج­زاده. 1386. تحلیل روند و خصوصیات مکانی شدت خشکسالی­های استان فارس. فصلنامه تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران، جلد 14، شماره 1.
شایق، ا. و س. سلطانی. 1390. مقایسه شاخص­های خشکسالی هواشناسی در استان یزد. مجله علوم و فنون کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، علوم آب و خاک، سال پانزدهم،  شماره پنجاه و هفتم.
Askari, A. and K. Nouhi. 2006. Consideration of droughts and return period of drought and wet years in qom province. Agricultural drought journal. No. 15. P. 47.
Bahrami. M. and M. Tavakol sadrabadi. 2015. Analysis of Intensity, duration and frequency of shiraz drought using SPI Index.2014.International conference on Engineering, Arts management and Environmet. szczcein, Poland.
Ghorbani, Kh., S. Alavipanah and G. Nakhaizade. 2009. Comparative study of meteorological drought indices including SIAP and SPI data using mining method (Case study: Kermanshah). Journal of soil and water. No. 3.
Hasanli, A. 2012. Climate change and its effect on water resources and environment. Mashahd jahad daneshgahi publications.
Jahandide, M. and A. shirvani. 2012. Precipitation Time series trend Analysis in Fars province. Journal of Water Resources Engineering.
Katiraie, P., S. Hejam and P. Irannejad. 2007. Contribution of changes in precipitation frequency and intensity of daily rainfall in the trend of precipitation in Iran in period of 1960-2001. Journal of Earth and Space Physics.Vo33.
Kendall, M. G. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods, 4th ed., Charles Griffin: London.
Mann, H. B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica 13, 245-259.
McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, J. Kleist. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Jan17-23, 1993Anaheim CA, pp. 179-186., 233-236.
Moradi, H., M. Rajabi and R. Farjzade. 2007. Analysis of trend and location charactersitics of drought severity in fars province. Research quarterly on grassland and desert.volume14.no1.
Modarres, R. and V. P. R. Silva. 2007. Rainfall trends in arid and semi- aridregions of Iran. Journal of Arid Environments. No 13. PP 34-41.
Pittock, B. 2003. Climate change: an Australian guide to the science and potential impacts, Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra.
Shayegh, E. and S. Soltani. 2012.Comparison of drought indices in yazd province. Journal of Agriculture and natural resources science and technology, soil-water sciences-no57.
Willke, G., J. R. M. Hosking, J. R. Wallis and N. B. Guttman. 1994. The national drought atlas. Institute for water resources, report 94-NDS-4, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Zare abyae, H., V., Yazdani and K. Azhdari. 2010. A comparative study of four meteorological drought indices based on relative yield of wheat in Hamedan province. Journal of natural geography research. No. 69.