Predicting Groundwater Table Fluctuations under Different Management Scenarios by MODFLOW Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University.

2 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University

Abstract

 
Abstract
Due to recent droughts and excessive extraction of groundwater resources, water table of Qom aquifer has had sharp drop resulted in intrusion of saline water into the groundwater and land subsidence. In order to prevent the crisis, operation management of water resources should be a principle in country planning. Simulation models are suitable tools for management and qualitative and quantitative conservation of groundwater resources. In this study, a two-year period data (September 2003- September 2005) were used for evaluating MODFLOW model to simulate the aquifer water table. The model showed the most sensitivity to specific yield, hydraulic conductivity, recharge and discharge, respectively. The correlation coefficient and root mean square error in the calibration stage varied from 0.24 to 0.99 and 0.01 to 0.14 m, respectively. The correlation coefficients and root mean square error in the verification step change between 0.52 to 0.97 and 0.002 to 1.14, respectively. To assess the aquifer response to various stresses, six management scenarios (continued current extraction of groundwater and recharge to groundwater resources, decrease by 10, 20 and 30% and reducing step by step of groundwater extraction, continued current extraction of groundwater and artificial recharge of groundwater using urban wastewater) were defined up to 2020. Based on the model results, the best scenario for restoring and balancing the groundwater is artificial recharge scenario using wastewater up to 2020.

Keywords


 

ابریشمی ج.، س.علوی مقدم. م. ر. و بهرامی جوینی.1380. مدل کمی آب‌های زیرزمینی غرب کویر طبس. مجموعه مقالات سومین کنفرانس هیدرولیک ایران، دانشکده فنی دانشگاه تهران، ایران.
بی نام. 1379. آرشیو گروه آمار و اطلاعات پایه منابع آب، شرکت آب منطقه‌ای قم، ایران.
بی نام. 1386 آرشیو گروه آمار و اطلاعات پایه منابع آب، شرکت آب منطقه‌ای قم، ایران.
خلقی م. 1380. مدل‌های ریاضی در جریان آب‌های زیرزمینی از تئوری تا کاربرد، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران. 67 صفحه.
رویا ع. ر. 1381. ارزیابی آب‌های زیرزمینی دشت هشتگرد و تهیه مدل ریاضی آن. عمران محیط زیست. دانشکده عمران دانشگاه خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی. تهران، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد.
صادقی راد م. ع. 1385. طرح مطالعات کیفی و آلودگی منابع آب زیرزمینی محدوده مطالعاتی قم. جلد سوم، مطالعات هیدروژئولوژی، شرکت سهامی آب منطقه‌ای قم، ایران.
Anderson M P. 1992. Applied groundwater modeling: simulation of flow and advective transport. Academic California. USA. 381p.
Arnold T R. 2013. Procedural knowledge for integrated modelling: towards the modelling playground. Environmental Modelling & Software. 39:135-148.
Chiang W H. 2005. 3D-Groundwater Modeling with PMWIN, A Simulation System for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Transport Processes. Springer. USA. 435p.
Conan C, Bouraoui F, Turpin N, de Marsily G and  Bidoglio G. 2002. Modeling flow and Nitrate Fate at Catchment scale in Brittany. (France). Environmental Quality. (32): 2026-2032.
Flores M, Jiménez G S, Martínez R, Chávez R and Silva-Pérez D. 2006. Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system. Mexico Hydrogeology. (14): 1216–1230.
Harbaugh A W, Banta E R, Hill M C and McDonald M. 2000. MODFLOW-2000, the US Geological Survey modular ground-water models; user guide to modularization concepts and the ground-water flow process. U. S. Geological Survey, 121 p.
Hill M C and Tiedeman C R. 2007. Effective groundwater model calibration Wiley Interscience USA, New York, 455 p.
Karaya G and Hajnala G. 2015. Modelling of groundwater flow in fractured rocks. Proceedings of the 7th Groundwater Symposium of the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research (IAHR). Procedia Environmental Sciences, Netherlands.
Kashaigili J J, Mashauri D A and Abdo G. 2003. Groundwater management by using mathematical modeling: case of the Makutupora groundwater basin in dodoma Tanzania. Botsw Technology Transfer. (12):19–24.
Kim N W, Chung I M, Won Y S, Arnold J G. 2008. Development and application of the integrated SWAT–MODFLOW model.  Hydrology. (356): 1–16.
Laniak G F, Olchin G, Goodall J, Voinov A, Hill M, Glynn P, Whelan G, Geller G, Quinn N, Blind M, Peckham S, Reaney S, Gaber N, Kennedy R and Hughes A. 2013. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for future. Environmental Modelling & Software. (39): 3-23.
Laura K and Siegel I. 2006. Modeling surface and ground water mixing in the hyporheic zone using MODFLOW and MT3D, Advances in Water Resources. (29): 1618–1633.
McDonald M G, Harbaugh A W. 1988. Modular three-dimensional finite difference ground-water flow model. Reston. US Geological Survey, 586 p
Nobre R C M, Filho O C R, Mansur W J and Cosenza C A N. 2007. Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping using GIS, modeling and a fuzzy logic tool. Contaminant Hydrology. (94): 277-292
Pisinaras V, Petalas C, Tsihrintzis V A and Zagana E. 2007. A groundwater flow model for water resources management in the Ismarida plain, North Greece. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. (12): 75-89.
Priyanka B N and Maheshab A. 2015. Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise. Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WATER RESOURCES, COASTAL AND OCEAN ENGINEERING (ICWRCOE), India.
Rejani R, Madan K, Panda S N and Mull R. 2008. Simulation modeling for efficient groundwater management in Balasore coastal basin, India. Water Resources Management. (22):23–50.
Rojas R and Dassargues A. 2007. Groundwater flow modelling of the regional aquifer of the Pampa del Tamarugal, northern Chile. Hydrogeology. (15): 537–551.
Scibek J, Allen D M. 2006. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels.Water Resources Research. (42): w11405.
Sophocleous M A, Koelliker J K, Govindaraju R S, Birdie T, Ramireddygari S R and Perkins S P. 1999. Integrated numerical modeling for basin-wide water management: the case of the Rattlesnake Creek basin in south-central Kansas.  Hydrology. (214): 179-196.
Zhang H and Hiscock K M. 2010. Modelling the impact of forest cover on groundwater resources: a case study of the Sherwood Sandstone aquifer in the East Midlands,UK.  Hydrology. (392): 136–149.