Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD Candidate of Irrigation and Drainage, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
2
Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
3
Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
4
Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
5
Researcher at Boise State University, Boise, USA
10.22125/iwe.2025.496104.1847
Abstract
The surface temperature of the Earth is rising, and due to climate change, this trend is expected to continue. This study investigates the effects of climate change on climatic variables using the MRI ESM2.0 climate prediction model in accordance with the sixth CMIP6 report in Lordegan and Borujen, employing temperature and precipitation data recorded at these two stations from 2000 to 2014. Subsequently, future atmospheric conditions were forecasted for two twenty-year periods: the near future (2020-2040) and the distant future (2040-2060), based on three designed emission scenarios—optimistic (SSP1-2-6), intermediate (SSP2-4-5), and pessimistic (SSP5-8-5). By comparing the parameters of the baseline period with the predicted future values, the Borujen and Lordegan stations are expected to see an increase in average minimum temperatures ranging from 1.3 degrees Celsius in the optimistic scenario during the near future to approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius in the pessimistic scenario in the distant future compared to the baseline period. For maximum temperatures, an increase between 1.2 and 3.1 degrees Celsius is observed across all selected scenarios. Specifically, the projected reduction in precipitation for Borujen is estimated to range from 7.5% to 11%, while for Lordegan, it is expected to vary from 12% to 14.7%. The results of this study can contribute to future water resource management, establish effective programs to address climate change, and prepare the ground for informed decision-making and appropriate planning
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