Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD student, Department of Desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Kashan University, Iran
2
Associate Professor, Department of Desert Sciences Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Iran
3
PhD, Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Iran
10.22125/iwe.2023.383176.1704
Abstract
The aim of the study is to evaluate the changes of mean temperature and precipitation parameters using IPCC Sixth Report models (CMIP6) under SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SPP5-8.5) during the period of 2022-2100 in Kashan Plain. The mean temperature and precipitation data was obtained from 7 stations (Kashan, Kavir-e-Hosseinabad, Kamu, Ardestan, Alavi, Noushabad and Sensen) in Kashan plain considering the base period of 30 years (1984-2014). Also, 7 models were selected from the models of the sixth report (CMIP6). The post-processing of the output of the models was carried out using the linear ratio method. Nash-Sutcliffe indices (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used to determine the accuracy of the models. The annual trend of changes was investigated using Mann-Kendall test. Finally, the mean of IPSL-CM6A-LR and BCC-CSM2-MR models outputs was used to simulate mean temperature and precipitation changes in the future period. According to the results, in all of the studied stations, precipitation in the coming period will have a decreasing trend compared to the base period. The mean temperature will also increase in the future period compared to the base period. In Kavir-e-Hossein Abad, Ardestan, Noush Abad and Sen Sen stations, the intensity of temperature increase will be higher than Kashan, Kamu and Alavi. According to the predicted conditions, it is necessary to pay attention to comprehensive policies in the field of adapting to climate change in Kashan Plain.
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