Irrigation and Water Engineering

Irrigation and Water Engineering

Investigating the role of extreme climate profiles on grape yield(Case study: Qochan, Sabzevar and Kashmer)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ali Asgharzadeh 1
Gholamreza janbazghobadi 2
Sadroddin Motevalli 3
Majid Taheryan 4
Mansoreh Koohi 5
1 Phd student of Climatology - Islamic Azad University, Noor-Noor branch, Iran
2 Member of the academic faculty of Islamic Azad University, Nour branch
3 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Nour branch
4 Assistant professor of research and training center for agriculture and natural resources Khorasan Razavi-Kashmir-Iran
5 Assistant professor at the Research Institute of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Research Institute of Climatology and Climate Change, Mashhad-Mashhad-Iran
10.22125/iwe.2024.463786.1814
Abstract
Climate change is considered a serious threat by increasing the occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as heat waves and drought. This study examines the effect of these extreme climate profiles on grape yield in the main grape growing areas in Khorasan Razavi province by analyzing the climate data along with the grape yield records, identifying the phenological stages that are more exposed to the profiles.. Their research showed that the driest region in Khorasan province is Razavi with 151.35 days in Kashmir and the wettest station in this study with 84.35 days is Quchan. The average maximum temperature in the three investigated stations showed that the maximum of this index was 25.25 degrees in Sabzevar and the minimum was 19.69 degrees in Guchan. The stepwise regression analysis showed that the percentage of days when the maximum temperature is less than the tenth percentile (TX10P), consecutive wet days (CWD), the number of days with heavy (R10mm) and very heavy (R20mm) rainfall, the range of daily temperature changes ( DTR), heat wave index (WSDI) and number of frost days (FD) are the most important indexes that influence grape yield. B. The yield prediction model in terms of tons per hectare based on the threshold profiles affecting grape yield in the selected stations of Razavi Khorasan province has had satisfactory results. So that the coefficient of determination in Kashmer station is calculated as 0.88, which shows that the produced regression model has high coefficients
Keywords
climate changes
extreme climate profiles
regression analysis
grape crop performance
Khorasan Razavi
Subjects
سبحانی، ب.، صفریان زنگیر، و.، صدیق نیا، ع،. (1399). پهنه‌بندی آگروکلیماتیک کشت انگور در حوضه آبخیز قره سو با استفاده از روش‌های نوین چند معیاره. پژوهش‌های اقلیم شناسی، 1398(39)، 123-138.
شجاعی، ط.، فلاح قالهری، غ؛ کاشکی، عبدالرضا. (1398). توان‌سنجی کشت درخت انگور در ایران براساس شرایط اقلیمی. آب و خاک، 33(6)، 923-942.
شجاعی، ط.، فلاح قالهری، غ.، کاشکی، عبدالرضا. (1399). بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر زمان رخداد آستانۀ زیستی و مرحلۀ گُل‏ دهی درخت انگور در ایران. پژوهش‌های جغرافیای طبیعی، 52(1)، 129-145.
علیزاده، ا.، بابائیان، ایمان؛ نوری، حمید؛ نجاتیان، محمد علی. (1398). بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید انگور بی دانه سفید در دوره (2050-2020) با استفاده از ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری برونداد مدل) HADCM3مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه گلمکان). نشریه هواشناسی و علوم جوّ، 2(3)، 246-257.
علیزاده، ا؛ بابائیان، ا.، نوری، حمید؛ نجاتیان، محمد علی. (1399). بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم برکیفیت انگور بی دانه سفید (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه هواشناسی کشاورزی گلمکان). پژوهش‌های اقلیم شناسی، 1399(43), 109-126.
Anastasiou, E., Templalexis, C. Lentzou, D, Biniari, K. Xanthopoulos, G, & Fountas, S. (2023). Do soil and climatic parameters affect yield and quality on table grapes?. Smart Agricultural Technology, 3, 100088.
Bellvert, J., Mata, M., Vallverdú, X., Paris, C., & Marsal, J. (2021). Optimizing precision irrigation of a vineyard to improve water use efficiency and profitability by using a decision-oriented vine water consumption model. Precision Agriculture, 22(2), 319-341.
Costea, D. C., & Căpruciu, R. (2022). The influence of environmental resources specific to the cultivation year over the grapevine growth and yield. " Annals of the University of Craiova-Agriculture Montanology Cadastre Series", 52(1), 95-100.
Costea, D. C., & Căpruciu, R. (2022). The influence of environmental resources specific to the cultivation year over the grapevine growth and yield. " Annals of the University of Craiova-Agriculture Montanology Cadastre Series", 52(1), 95-100.
De Orduna, R. M. (2010). Climate change associated effects on grape and wine quality and production. Food Research International, 43(7), 1844-1855.
Drepper, B., Bamps, B., Gobin, A., & Van Orshoven, J. (2022). Strategies for managing spring frost risks in orchards: effectiveness and conditionality—a systematic review. Environmental Evidence, 11(1).
Duchêne, E., Huard, F., Dumas, V., Schneider, C., & Merdinoglu, D. (2010). The challenge of adapting grapevine varieties to climate change. Climate research, 41(3), 193-204.
Evans, K. L., Yaron, D., & Leinhardt, G. (2008). Learning stoichiometry: a comparison of text and multimedia formats. Chemistry Education. Research and Practice, 9(3), 208–218.
 
Forster, M. A., & Englefield, A. (2021). The water use and growth response of grapevines to extreme temperature events. Theoretical and Experimental Plant Physiology, 33(3), 187-203.
Gambetta, G. A., Herrera, J. C., Dayer, S., Feng, Q., Hochberg, U., & Castellarin, S. D. (2020). The physiology of drought stress in grapevine: towards an integrative definition of drought tolerance. Journal of experimental botany, 71(16), 4658-4676.
Ghiglieno, I., Carlin, S., Cola, G., Vrhovsek, U., Valenti, L., Garcia-Aloy, M., & Mattivi, F. (2023). Impact of meteorological conditions, canopy shading and leaf removal on yield, must quality, and norisoprenoid compounds content in Franciacorta sparkling wine. Frontiers in Plant Science, 14, 1125560.
Hoffman, A. R. (2019). Energy production and its consequences for water and the environment. In IWA Publishing eBooks (pp. 29–35).
Hong, Y. I. N., & Ying, S. U. N. (2018). Characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation in China in 2017 based on ETCCDI indices. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(4), 218-226.
Irimia, L. M., Patriche, C. V., & Murariu, O. C. (2018). The impact of climate change on viticultural potential and wine grape varieties of a temperate wine growing region. Applied Ecology & Environmental Research, 16(3).
Jones, G. V., Reid, R., & Vilks, A. (2012). Climate, grapes, and wine: structure and suitability in a variable and changing climate. The geography of wine: Regions, terroir and techniques, 109-133.
Keller, M. (2010). Managing grapevines to optimise fruit development in a challenging environment: a climate change primer for viticulturists. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 16, 56-69.
Kliewer, W. M. (1977). Effect of high temperatures during the bloom-set period on fruit-set, ovule fertility, and berry growth of several grape cultivars. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 28(4), 215-222.
Luber, G., & McGeehin, M. (2008). Climate change and extreme heat events. American journal of preventive medicine, 35(5), 429-435.
Mekanik, F., Imteaz, M. A., Gato-Trinidad, S., & Elmahdi, A. (2013). Multiple regression and Artificial Neural Network for long-term rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes. Journal of Hydrology, 503, 11-21.
Puga, G., Anderson, K., & Tchatoka, F. D. (2023). The impact of climate change on grape yields: Evidence from Australia. OENO One, 57(2).
Rienth, M., Torregrosa, L., Sarah, G., Ardisson, M., Brillouet, J. M., & Romieu, C. (2016). Temperature desynchronizes sugar and organic acid metabolism in ripening grapevine fruits and remodels their transcriptome. BMC Plant Biology, 16, 1-23.
Rouxinol, M. I., Martins, M. R., Salgueiro, V., Costa, M. J., Barroso, J. M., & Rato, A. E. (2023). Climate Effect on Morphological Traits and Polyphenolic Composition of Red Wine Grapes of Vitis vinifera. Beverages, 9(1), 8.
Stolzenberg, R. M. (2004). Multiple regression analysis. Handbook of data analysis, 165-208.
Sun, Q., Granco, G., Groves, L., Voong, J., & Van Zyl, S. (2023). Viticultural manipulation and new technologies to address environmental challenges caused by climate change. Climate, 11(4), 83.
Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., & Roberts, N. M. (2014). Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews of Geophysics, 52(3), 522–555.
Wolfe, D. W., DeGaetano, A. T., Peck, G. M., Carey, M., Ziska, L. H., Lea-Cox, J., Kemanian, A. R., Hoffmann, M. P., & Hollinger, D. Y. (2017). Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate. Climatic Change, 146(1–2), 231–245.
Wolkovich, E. M., Burge, D. O., Walker, M. A., & Nicholas, K. A. (2017). Phenological diversity provides opportunities for climate change adaptation in winegrapes. Journal of Ecology, 105(4), 905-912.
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G.C., Jones, P., Tank, A.K., Peterson, T.C., Trewin, B. and Zwiers, F.W. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(6), 851-870.