Irrigation and Water Engineering

Irrigation and Water Engineering

Investigation the Effect of Climate Change and Land Use Change on the Future Flow of the Kor and Sivand Rivers Using the SWAT Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Hydrology and water resource, Faculty of water engineering and environmental, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz,Iran
2 Professor, Dep. of Hydrology and Water Resources, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran.
10.22125/iwe.2025.533564.1889
Abstract
Numerous effects of land use and climate change on the basin's hydrological components alter the features of its water supplies. This study examined the joint effects of land use and climate change on run‌off in the Kor and Sivand basins using two climate models, HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for years 2021–2050. After obtaining photos of the area from the Landsat satellite's TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors, changes in land use were forecasted using the LCM model. River runoff was modeled using the SWAT hydrological model. The assessment criteria specify the model's intended performance throughout the calibration and validation phases. The HadGEM3-GC31-LL model predicts an increase in temperature and winter precipitation in the period 2021-2050. The MPI-ESM1-2-LR model indicates a drier future with a significant decrease in precipitation in the cold seasons and a relative increase in temperature. The study of land use changes in the region shows that forest and pasture cover have decreased and agricultural, horticultural, and residential uses are 2.3, 10.8, and 8.45 times greater than the base period, respectively. The HadGEM3-GC31-LL model forecasts an increase in discharge in the winter season under both scenarios and the effect of land use change due to increased precipitation so that the Chamriz station in January increased by 145% compared to the base period. The MPI-ESM1-2-LR model shows a uniform decrease in discharge at all stations, especially in the summer months.
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