Ranking Evaluation of Data-driven and Conceptual Modelling of Rainfall-Runoff Process in Monthly Time Scale

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.

2 Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department University of Tehran

3 Water Resource Control Engineer at State Water Resources Control Board, Sacramento, California, USA, Shahab.Araghinejad@stantec.com

Abstract

Rainfall-runoff monthly modelling process plays an important role in dams’ operation. Herein the performances of three data-based models including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) are compared in tandem with IHACRES conceptual model, while they were applied with similar data, and optimal structures. Simulation of monthly inflow to Karkheh reservoir, Iran, was considered as the case study, and 32-year data (1982-2014) of monthly temperature and precipitation belong to the upper sub-basin of the dam, and monthly inflow to the reservoir were used. With respect to the different rainfall-runoff patterns in different months, the models assessed in a general and monthly manners using a rating method based on performance criteria including: Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient(R). Results showed that both model evaluation procedure in validation phase, ANN and KNN models have the highest and lowest efficiency in monthly streamflow forecasting, respectively. Based on the rating general evaluation the performance of ANN (NSE= 0.749, R= 0.868) and IHACRES (NSE= 0.699, R= 0.842) are similar with a score of 8 while the GRNN (NSE= 0.618, R= 0.793) and KNN (NSE= 0.601, R= 0.777) models with similar performance (score 5) were ranked in the second order. However, in accordance with rating monthly assessment of the models, the performance of GRNN was similar to IHACRES with the total score of 38 based on three criteria while they were ranked in the second order after ANN model with score 48.

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