Irrigation and Water Engineering

Irrigation and Water Engineering

Futures Studies of Critical Success and Failure Factors for Enhancing Resilience to Drought through Water Management

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Zeinab Afzali
Mohammad Reza Zare Mehrjerdi
Somayeh Amirtaimoori
Hossein Mehrabi Bosharabadi
Hamid Reza Mirzaei Khalilabadi
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
10.22125/iwe.2026.565415.1916
Abstract
Drought is one of the most significant challenges facing Iran's agricultural sector, making the enhancement of resilience to drought a vital strategy for mitigating vulnerability. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the critical success and failure factors for enhancing resilience to drought through water management, employing a futures studies approach. The research is descriptive-exploratory in nature and utilizes a sequential exploratory mixed-methods design (qualitative-quantitative). In the qualitative phase, success and failure factors for enhancing drought resilience were identified through a meta-synthesis . In the quantitative phase, a descriptive-survey method was employed to conduct a futures studies analysis using Structural Analysis of Cross-Impacts. The findings revealed that the success factors for enhancing resilience to drought comprise five dimensions (Governance Requirements, Infrastructural Requirements, Communication and Collaboration, Socio-Cultural Requirements, and Technical Requirements) and 12 components. Conversely, the failure factors consist of four dimensions (Managerial, Socio-Cultural, Economic, and Technical Challenges) and 8 components. The analysis of key drivers indicated that "Governance Requirements" was the most influential factor (key driver) in terms of both direct and indirect impact on success. Similarly, for failure factors, "Economic Challenges" was identified as the top key driver. The findings of this study can serve as a practical guide for policymakers and planners in the field of drought management.
Keywords
Futures Studies
Success and Failure Factors
Resilience
Drought
Water Management
Subjects
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