پیش بینی گروهی و هشدار وقوع سیل در سد مخزنی دز با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های پیش بینی-مجدد بارش و دما GEFSv12

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 استاد، گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

لازمه بهره برداری مخزن در شرایط سیلابی، پیش‌بینی حجم آب ورودی به مخزن است که اهمیت آن در حوضه‌های کوهستانی با رژیم بارانی-برفی دو چندان است. هدف اصلی در پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی دقت داده‌های پیش بینی مجدد GEFSv12 به عنوان ورودی مدل مفهومی بارش-رواناب HEC-HMS، در پیش بینی و صدور هشدار وقوع سیلاب ورودی به مخزن سد دز در جنوب غربی ایران بوده است. بدین منظور پس از استخراج پارامترهای بارش و دما (شامل مقادیر کنترل و اعضا) تا افق پیش بینی 10-روزه اقدام به تولید پیش بینی گروهی سیلاب شد. در این پژوهش، با شرط تجاوز اکثریت نسبی اعضای پیش‌بینی‌کننده از دبی آستانه (معادل 1620 و 2640 متر مکعب بر ثانیه به ترتیب با دوره بازگشت 2 و 5 ساله) دستور صدور پیش‌هشدار آگاهی از وقوع سیل صادر می شود. در حالی که در حوضه‌هایی با رژیم بارانی-برفی پیش بینی سیلاب دارای پیچیدگی های بسیاری است، نتایج شاخص‌های ارزیابی در این تحقیق نشان داد که از 5 روز قبل (افق زمانی پیش بینی 5-روزه) می‌توان انتظار بهبود قابل توجهی در دقت پیش بینی داشت. از طرفی، رابطه‌ی مستقیمی بین کاهش افق پیش بینی و افزایش دقت پیش بینی مشاهده نشد. نتایج بررسی احتمالاتی درصد توافق اعضا در تجاوز از آستانه دبی 2640 متر مکعب بر ثانیه بیانگر اعلان هشدار در بازه پیش بینی 4 الی 7 روز قبل ‌می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Ensemble forecasting and flood warning in Dez Dam Reservoir using GEFSv12 Re-forecast temperature and precipitation data

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Eidipour 1
  • Ali mohammad . Akhondali 2
  • mohammad amin maddah 3
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

It is necessary to forecast the volume of inflow to reservoir operation in flood conditions, which is of double importance in mountainous basins with a rain-snow regime. The main purpose of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of GEFSv12 reforecast data as an input to the HEC-HMS precipitation-runoff conceptual model in forecasting and warning issuance for floods entering the Dez dam resrvoir, southwest Iran. For this purpose, after deriving precipitation and temperature parameters (including control values and ensemble members) up to 10-days lead time, the flood ensemble forecast was produced. In the study, in case of exceeding the threshold discharge (1620 and 2640 m3/sec with return period of 2 and 5 years, respectively) by a relative majority of forecasting members, the flood warning was issued. Although, flood forecast in basins with the rain-snow regime is very complicated, the results of evaluation indexes showed that a considerable improvement of forecast accuracy might be expected 5 days ahead (5-days lead time). Then again, there was no direct relationship between the reduction of forecast lead time and the enhancement of forecast accuracy. The results of the probabilistic study of the members’ agreement percent in exceeding the threshold discharge of 2640 m3/sec indicated warning issuance within the forecast lead time of 4-7 days ahead.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • flood warningm
  • ensemble forecast
  • GEFSv12
  • hydrologic model
  • reservoir management

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