بررسی متغیرهای هواشناسی مؤثر در روند تبخیر-تعرق مرجع در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

تبخیر-تعرق مرجع (ETo) نقش مهمی در مدیریت و برنامه­ریزی آبیاری دارد. بررسی حساسیت ETo به متغیرهای هواشناسی و بررسی سهم هر متغیر در روند ETo، برای مدیریت بحران آب دریاچه ارومیه ضروری است. در این مطالعه، تبخیر-تعرق مرجع در 13 ایستگاه سینوپتیک داخل و اطراف حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه برای دوره 2018-1990 به روش پنمن-مانتیث فائو برآورد شد. نتایج تحلیل روند نشان داد که میانگین ETo سالانه ایستگاه­ها روند افزایشی معنی­داری به میزان mm year-2 0/8 دارد. به­علاوه، تحلیل روند میانگین متغیرهای هواشناسی سالانه ایستگاه­ها، بیانگر روندهای افزایشی معنی­دار در دمای کمینه (Tmin) (℃ year-1 07/0)، دمای بیشینه (Tmax) (℃ year-1 09/0) و سرعت باد (u2) (m s-1 year-1 02/0) است. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت ETo نشان داد که در مقیاس زمانی سالانه، بیشترین میزان حساسیت ETo به رطوبت نسبی (RH) و کمترین میزان حساسیت ETo به Tmin است. همچنین، طی این دوره میزان حساسیت ETo به Tmax، u2 و RH افزایش و میزان حساسیت ETo به تابش خورشیدی (Rs) کاهش یافته است. نتایج تحلیل سهم متغیرهای هواشناسی در تغییرات ETo بیانگر این است که در اغلب ایستگاه­ها (با اقلیم خشک و نیمه خشک) u2 بیشترین سهم را در تغییر ETo دارد. اما، در ایستگاه سردشت با اقلیم خیلی مرطوب، سهم سایر عوامل در روند ETo (کاهش RH و افزایش Tmin و Tmax) بیشتر از تاثیر کاهش u2 است. نتایج این مطالعه، لزوم توجه به پاسخ متفاوت ETo به تغییرات متغیرهای هواشناسی در اقلیم­های مختلف را در برنامه­ریزی سامانه­های منابع آب و مطالعات وابسته به سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم برجسته می­سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Effective Meteorological Variables on Reference Evapotranspiration Trend in Lake Urmia Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Hejabi 1
  • Hassan Rezaeian 2
  • Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah 2
1 Assistant professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]

Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) has an important role in irrigation management  and scheduling. Evaluating the sensitivity of ET­o to different meteorological variables and contribution of each variable in ET­o trend is essential for better management of water crisis in Lake Urmia basin. In this study, ETo in 13 synoptic stations in and around Lake Urmia basin for the period 1990-2018 was estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith method. Trend analysis showed that the average annual ETo of stations has significant increasing trend of 8.0 mm year-2. In addition, the trend analysis of the average annual meteorological variables of the stations reveals significant increasing trends in minimum temperature (Tmin) (0.07 ℃ year-1), maximum temperature (Tmax) (0.09 ℃ year-1), and wind speed (u2) (0.02 m s-1 year-1). Sensitivity analysis of ETo to meteorological variables indicate that on an annual temporal scale, the maximum sensitivity of ETo is to relative humidity (RH) and the minimum sensitivity of ETo is to Tmin. Also, during this period, the sensitivity of ETo to Tmax, u2, and RH increased and the sensitivity of ETo to solar radiation (Rs) decreased. The contribution analysis of meteorological variables to ETo variations indicate that in most stations (with arid and semi-arid climate), u2 has the largest contribution in ETo variations. However, in Sardasht station with a very humid climate, the contribution of other factors in the ETo trend (decrease in RH and increase in Tmin and Tmax) is greater than the effect of decrease in u2. The results of this study highlights the need to pay attention to the different response of ETo to meteorological variables changes in different climates in planning water resources systems and studies that are dependent on climate change scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Reference Evapotranspiration
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Contribution Analysis
  • Trend Analysis
  • Lake Urmia basin
Alizadeh‐Choobari, O., Ahmadi‐Givi, F., Mirzaei, N., Owlad, E., 2016. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia. International Journal of Climatology, 36(13): 4276-4286, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4630
Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., Smith, M., 1998. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, 300(9): D05109.
Amirataee, B., Montaseri, M., Sanikhani, H., 2016. The analysis of trend variations of reference evapotranspiration via eliminating the significance effect of all autocorrelation coefficients. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 126(1-2): 131-139, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1566-z
Beven, K., 1979. A sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteith actual evapotranspiration estimates. Journal of Hydrology, 44(3-4): 169-190, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(79)90130-6
Delju, A.H., Ceylan, A., Piguet, E., Rebetez, M., 2013. Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Theoretical and applied climatology, 111(1-2): 285-296, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0651-9
Dinpashoh, Y., Jahanbakhsh-Asl, S., Rasouli, A.A., Foroughi, M., Singh, V.P., 2019. Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(1-2): 185-201, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2462-0
Dinpashoh, Y., Jhajharia, D., Fakheri-Fard, A., Singh, V.P., Kahya, E., 2011. Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. Journal of Hydrology, 399(3-4): 422-433, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.021
Du, C., Yu, J., Wang, P., Zhang, Y., 2016. Reference evapotranspiration changes: Sensitivities to and contributions of meteorological factors in the Heihe River Basin of Northwestern China (1961–2014). Advances in Meteorology, https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/4143580
Eslamian, S., Khordadi, M.J., Abedi-Koupai, J., 2011. Effects of variations in climatic parameters on evapotranspiration in the arid and semi-arid regions. Global and Planetary Change, 78(3-4): 188-194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.07.001
Fathian, F., Morid, S., Kahya, E., 2015. Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119(3-4): 443-464, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1120-4
Gong, L., Xu, C.Y., Chen, D., Halldin, S., Chen, Y.D., 2006. Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin. Journal of Hydrology, 329(3-4): 620-629, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.03.027
Guo, D., Westra, S. and Maier, H. R. 2017. Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to changes in climate variables for different Australian climatic zones. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(4): 2107-2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2107-2017
Kendall, M.G., 1948. Rank correlation methods, Griffin, Oxford, UK.
Liu, Q., Yang, Z., Cui, B., Sun, T., 2010. The temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Yellow River Basin, China. Hydrological processes, 24(15): 2171-2181, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7649
Mann, H.B., 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 245-259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
McCuen, R.H., 1974. A sensitivity and error analysis CF procedures used for estimating evaporation. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 10(3): 486-497, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1974.tb00590.x
Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporation and environment. In Symposia of the society for experimental biology (Vol. 19, pp. 205-234). Cambridge University Press (CUP) Cambridge.
Mosaedi, A., Ghabaei Sough, M., Sadeghi, S.H., Mooshakhian, Y., Bannayan, M., 2017. Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach. Theoretical and applied climatology, 128(3-4): 857-873, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1740-y
Ndiaye, P. M., Bodian, A., Diop, L., Deme, A., Dezetter, A., Djaman, K. and Ogilvie, A. 2020. Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data. Water, 12(7): 1957, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071957
Nouri, M., Bannayan, M., 2019. Spatiotemporal changes in aridity index and reference evapotranspiration over semi-arid and humid regions of Iran: trend, cause, and sensitivity analyses. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(3-4): 1073-1084, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2543-0
Nouri, M., Homaee, M., Bannayan, M., 2017. Quantitative trend, sensitivity and contribution analyses of reference evapotranspiration in some arid environments under climate change. Water Resources Management, 31(7): 2207-2224, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1638-1
Peng, L., Li, Y., Feng, H., 2017. The best alternative for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration in different sub-regions of mainland China. Scientific reports, 7(1): 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05660-y
Penman, H.L., 1948. Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 193(1032): 120-145, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1948.0037
Saxton, K.E., 1975. Sensitivity analyses of the combination evapotranspiration equation. Agricultural Meteorology, 15(3): 343-353, https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-1571(75)90031-X
Sharifi, A., Dinpashoh, Y., 2014. Sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteith reference crop evapotranspiration to climatic variables in Iran. Water resources management, 28(15): 5465-5476, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0813-x
Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., 2014. Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to climatic change in different climates. Global and Planetary Change, 115: 16-23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.01.006
Tabari, H., Nikbakht, J., Talaee, P.H., 2012. Identification of trend in reference evapotranspiration series with serial dependence in Iran. Water Resources Management, 26(8): 2219-2232, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0011-7
Wang, Z., Ye, A., Wang, L., Liu, K., Cheng, L., 2019. Spatial and temporal characteristics of reference evapotranspiration and its climatic driving factors over China from 1979–2015. Agricultural Water Management, 213: 1096-1108, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.12.006
Yin, Y., Wu, S., Dai, E., 2010. Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971–2008. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(29): 3329-3337, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-3289-y