بررسی متغیرهای هواشناسی مؤثر در روند تبخیر-تعرق مرجع در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

تبخیر-تعرق مرجع (ETo) نقش مهمی در مدیریت و برنامه­ریزی آبیاری دارد. بررسی حساسیت ETo به متغیرهای هواشناسی و بررسی سهم هر متغیر در روند ETo، برای مدیریت بحران آب دریاچه ارومیه ضروری است. در این مطالعه، تبخیر-تعرق مرجع در 13 ایستگاه سینوپتیک داخل و اطراف حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه برای دوره 2018-1990 به روش پنمن-مانتیث فائو برآورد شد. نتایج تحلیل روند نشان داد که میانگین ETo سالانه ایستگاه­ها روند افزایشی معنی­داری به میزان mm year-2 0/8 دارد. به­علاوه، تحلیل روند میانگین متغیرهای هواشناسی سالانه ایستگاه­ها، بیانگر روندهای افزایشی معنی­دار در دمای کمینه (Tmin) (℃ year-1 07/0)، دمای بیشینه (Tmax) (℃ year-1 09/0) و سرعت باد (u2) (m s-1 year-1 02/0) است. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت ETo نشان داد که در مقیاس زمانی سالانه، بیشترین میزان حساسیت ETo به رطوبت نسبی (RH) و کمترین میزان حساسیت ETo به Tmin است. همچنین، طی این دوره میزان حساسیت ETo به Tmax، u2 و RH افزایش و میزان حساسیت ETo به تابش خورشیدی (Rs) کاهش یافته است. نتایج تحلیل سهم متغیرهای هواشناسی در تغییرات ETo بیانگر این است که در اغلب ایستگاه­ها (با اقلیم خشک و نیمه خشک) u2 بیشترین سهم را در تغییر ETo دارد. اما، در ایستگاه سردشت با اقلیم خیلی مرطوب، سهم سایر عوامل در روند ETo (کاهش RH و افزایش Tmin و Tmax) بیشتر از تاثیر کاهش u2 است. نتایج این مطالعه، لزوم توجه به پاسخ متفاوت ETo به تغییرات متغیرهای هواشناسی در اقلیم­های مختلف را در برنامه­ریزی سامانه­های منابع آب و مطالعات وابسته به سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم برجسته می­سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Effective Meteorological Variables on Reference Evapotranspiration Trend in Lake Urmia Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Hejabi 1
  • Hassan Rezaeian 2
  • Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah 2
1 Assistant professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]

Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) has an important role in irrigation management  and scheduling. Evaluating the sensitivity of ET­o to different meteorological variables and contribution of each variable in ET­o trend is essential for better management of water crisis in Lake Urmia basin. In this study, ETo in 13 synoptic stations in and around Lake Urmia basin for the period 1990-2018 was estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith method. Trend analysis showed that the average annual ETo of stations has significant increasing trend of 8.0 mm year-2. In addition, the trend analysis of the average annual meteorological variables of the stations reveals significant increasing trends in minimum temperature (Tmin) (0.07 ℃ year-1), maximum temperature (Tmax) (0.09 ℃ year-1), and wind speed (u2) (0.02 m s-1 year-1). Sensitivity analysis of ETo to meteorological variables indicate that on an annual temporal scale, the maximum sensitivity of ETo is to relative humidity (RH) and the minimum sensitivity of ETo is to Tmin. Also, during this period, the sensitivity of ETo to Tmax, u2, and RH increased and the sensitivity of ETo to solar radiation (Rs) decreased. The contribution analysis of meteorological variables to ETo variations indicate that in most stations (with arid and semi-arid climate), u2 has the largest contribution in ETo variations. However, in Sardasht station with a very humid climate, the contribution of other factors in the ETo trend (decrease in RH and increase in Tmin and Tmax) is greater than the effect of decrease in u2. The results of this study highlights the need to pay attention to the different response of ETo to meteorological variables changes in different climates in planning water resources systems and studies that are dependent on climate change scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Reference evapotranspiration
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Contribution analysis
  • Trend analysis
  • Lake Urmia basin
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