Climatic transformations, through changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, threaten hydrological balance and the overall performance of water resource systems. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in the Northern Ahvaz Plain aquifer, located in Khuzestan Province, Iran. To this end, outputs from coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models under the SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 scenarios were downscaled for the Ahvaz synoptic station using the LARS‑WG stochastic weather generator (version 7.0). Variations in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation were then evaluated for the baseline period (2000–2025) and the future period (2026–2045). The results showed that the annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures will increase under all scenarios compared with the baseline period. The highest increases in maximum and minimum temperatures, 2.29°C and 1.65°C, respectively, were projected under SSP8.5, whereas the lowest increases, 2.05°C and 1.56°C, were associated with SSP2.6 and SSP4.5. In contrast, annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease by 3.91%, 8.6%, and 11% under SSP4.5, SSP2.6, and SSP8.5, respectively. To assess the implications of these climatic variations for groundwater resources, a numerical groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW within the GMS environment (version 10.8). Simulation results indicated a general decline in groundwater levels during the future period under all scenarios. The largest decline, approximately 7.5 m, occurred under SSP8.5, reflecting a more critical aquifer condition. The proposed integrated framework can support quantitative assessment of aquifer sensitivity to climate change in similar basins.