نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد عمران-مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علوم و تحقیقات تهران
3 کارشناس پژوهشی موسسه تحقیقات آب وزارت نیرو
عنوان مقاله [English]
Climate change is inevitable and has different effects on water resources in each region. Due to the large population and high exploitation potentials in terms of agriculture, drinking, industry, etc., the study of the effects of climate change on the groundwater level of the Sari-Neka coastal aquifer is of great importance. In this regard, initially using the MODFLOW model, the quantitative model of groundwater in the region for the base period (from October 2010 to September 2014) was calibrated. The correlation coefficient of 0.98 in the unsteady state showed the high accuracy of quantitative modeling of the aquifer. Then, the LARS-WG model was calibrated for the base period (2000-2019). The correlation coefficient for precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature was 0.97, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively. Indicates the high accuracy of the calibrated model. To simulate the above climate parameters using CMIP5 models including HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR, EC-EARTH, and GFDL-CM3 under two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the next period (2040-2021) was paid. In general, the results showed an increase in rainfall in most months of the year and relative changes in temperature in the future. Finally, the impact of climate change on the groundwater level of the region under different models and scenarios of CMIP5 for the future (2021-2040) was investigated. The results showed that in 8 of 10 cases, the groundwater level in the future period will be higher than the base period, which can be used for the development of agriculture and industry in the region.